Dollar Regime
DXY continues to hover without a decisive cross. DXY flags: below 200wma.
BUY SIGNAL -- EEM/EFA (Emerging Markets vs Developed Markets ratio) is showing bullish momentum (golden cross, new 52w high, rounded base). Consider buying via your broker.
SELL SIGNAL -- RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) is showing weakness (new 52w high, rsi bearish divergence, rounded top). Consider selling or avoiding.
POSSIBLE BOTTOM -- IVE/IVW (Value vs Growth) hit a new 52-week low. Could be oversold, but wait for a bounce/chart reversal before buying.
FEAR = OPPORTUNITY -- Market fear index is at 1 (extreme fear). This is often the best time to buy. Consider: SPY (S&P 500), VOO (S&P 500), VTI (Total US Market), or SCHD (Dividend ETF). Dollar-cost average in over 2-4 weeks.
| Ticker | What It Is |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple |
| ACWX | All Country World ex-US |
| AMZN | Amazon |
| ASEA | Southeast Asia |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin |
| COPX | Copper Miners |
| DBA | Agriculture |
| DBC | Broad Commodities |
| DX-Y.NYB | US Dollar Index |
| EEM | Emerging Markets |
| EEM/EFA | Emerging Markets vs Developed Markets ratio |
| EFA | Developed Markets (ex-US) |
| EFNL | Finland |
| EIS | Israel |
| EPOL | Poland |
| ERUS | Russia |
| EWC | Canada |
| EWD | Sweden |
| EWH | Hong Kong |
| EWJ | Japan |
| EWN | Netherlands |
| EWP | Spain |
| EWQ | France |
| EWS | Singapore |
| EWT | Taiwan |
| EWU | UK |
| EWY | South Korea |
| EWZ | Brazil |
| EWZ/SPY | Brazil vs S&P 500 |
| EZA | South Africa |
| EZA/SPY | South Africa vs S&P 500 |
| FXI | China Large-Cap |
| FXI/SPY | China vs S&P 500 |
| GLD | Gold |
| GLD/BTC | Gold vs Bitcoin |
| GLD/SPY | Gold vs S&P 500 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet / Google |
| HYG | High-Yield Bonds |
| IBB | Biotech |
| IEF | 7-10 Year Treasuries |
| IGV | Software |
| IJH | S&P Mid-Cap 400 |
| IJR | S&P Small-Cap 600 |
| INDA | India |
| IVE | Large-Cap Value |
| IVE/IVW | Value vs Growth |
| IVW | Large-Cap Growth |
| IWM | Russell 2000 (small-caps) |
| KRE | Regional Banks |
| KWEB | China Internet |
| LQD | Investment-Grade Bonds |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 ETF |
| MCHI | China (MSCI) |
| META | Meta / Facebook |
| MSFT | Microsoft |
| NVDA | NVIDIA |
| PALL | Palladium |
| PPLT | Platinum |
| PPLT/SPY | Platinum vs S&P 500 |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight |
| SLV | Silver |
| SMH | Semiconductors |
| SMH/ACWX | Semiconductors vs Rest of World |
| SMID/Large | SMID/Large |
| SPY | S&P 500 |
| SPY/ACWX | US vs Rest of World |
| SPY/DBC | S&P 500 vs Commodities |
| SPY/TLT | Stocks vs Treasuries |
| TAN | Solar Energy |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasuries |
| TSLA | Tesla |
| UDN | US Dollar Bearish |
| URA | Uranium |
| USO | Oil (WTI) |
| UUP | US Dollar Bullish |
| VGK | Europe |
| XBI | Genomics / Biotech |
| XLB | Materials |
| XLC | Communications |
| XLE | Energy |
| XLE/SPY | Energy vs S&P 500 |
| XLE/TAN | Energy vs Solar |
| XLF | Financials |
| XLI | Industrials |
| XLK | Technology |
| XLK/ACWX | Tech vs Rest of World |
| XLP | Consumer Staples |
| XLRE | Real Estate |
| XLU | Utilities |
| XLV | Healthcare |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary |
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration |
| em_13w_returns | em_13w_returns |
What are the charts telling us this month?
Parameters: 10-Yr Weekly Charts
-> 50 Week-Moving Average (Orange)
-> 200 Week-Moving Average (Blue)
-> RSI (Top Panel), MACD (Middle Panel), Stochastic RSI (Bottom Panel)
-> Valuation Bands (Average, +-1&2 Standard Deviation)
**Monthly Takeaway:** The most extreme signal this month is EEM/EFA with golden cross, new 52w high, rounded base, above 200wma (score: 24). RSP is also notable with new 52w high, rsi bearish divergence, rounded top, above 200wma (score: 20). IJH is also notable with new 52w high, rsi bearish divergence, rounded base, above 200wma (score: 20). Breadth is bullish with 100% of sectors above their 200WMA. Sentiment reads extreme fear on the Fear & Greed index.
Sentiment snapshot — CNN Fear & Greed at 1 (Extreme Fear); VIX 15.81; put/call ratio 0.42.
| Asset Class | % Above 200-WMA |
|---|---|
| Sectors | 0/0 above, 0/0 below |
| Markets | 0/0 above, 0/0 below |
| Ratios | 0/0 above, 0/0 below |
| Commodities | 3/3 above, 0/3 below |
| Bonds | 3/3 above, 0/3 below |
DXY continues to hover without a decisive cross. DXY flags: below 200wma.
GLD — above 200wma, rounded top
SLV — above 200wma, rounded top
PPLT — above 200wma, rounded top
US vs Rest of World — no fresh technical flags
Value / Growth — no fresh technical flags
EEM / EFA
EM Country 200-WMA Status:
- EZA: above 200WMA
- EWZ: above 200WMA
- EWH: above 200WMA
- EWJ: above 200WMA
- FXI: above 200WMA
- EWT: above 200WMA
- EWY: above 200WMA
- EWS: above 200WMA
| Ticker | P/E | Z-Score | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | N/A | N/A | above 200wma, rounded top, new 52w high |
| MSFT | N/A | N/A | above 200wma, rounded top |
| AMZN | N/A | N/A | above 200wma |
| GOOGL | N/A | N/A | above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded top |
| META | N/A | N/A | above 200wma, rounded top |
| NVDA | N/A | N/A | above 200wma, rounded top |
| TSLA | N/A | N/A | above 200wma, rounded top |
EEM/EFA — golden cross, above 200wma, rounded base, new 52w high
RSP — above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded top, new 52w high
IJH — above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded base, new 52w high
EEM — above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded base, new 52w high
ACWX — above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded base, new 52w high
EWY — above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded base, new 52w high
EWC — above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded top, new 52w high
EWN — above 200wma, rsi bearish divergence, rounded base, new 52w high
- Cheap markets: FXI, EZA, EWZ
- Expensive markets: EWJ, INDA
- Cheap sectors: XLF, XLC
- Expensive sectors: XLRE, XLK, SMH
| Country/Region | ETF | P/E | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| country_pe_source | country_pe_source | N/A | N/A |
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